The muchomota wiki

Bob asks the questions. Uncle Tau answers them. The author writes it down so strangers on the internet can read over Bob's shoulder. Everybody's a hypocrite.

This is the math-and-software companion to muchomota — the engine room behind every number on the Results, Strategy, Stable, and Package Builder tabs, explained the way Tau would explain it in the back booth of the taquería. The waiter keeps trying to push el combo. Tau keeps waving him off. We'll talk about el combo another time.

Everything here is free. The deeper material — how to read your own outputs, how to price your own action, the internals behind SALSA — is released through subscriber calls, not the web.

1 · Foundations

The ideas every output in the app is built on.

• Priors and Posteriors — start here
• Shrinkage and Empirical Bayes
• Why Bayesian beats point estimates

2 · Our model

How SALSA, archetypes, and rake turn the foundations into a working engine.

• SALSA — the simulator, explained without the code
• Archetypes — why everything collapses to two numbers
• Rake is linear — why it's a flat shift, not compounding

3 · Staking math

The accounting every stake, package, and stable depends on.

• Markup — what it is, why it exists
• Makeup — running a tab in the red
• Profit chop — who gets what, and when
• Bond — why honest players should never notice it

4 · Variance and bankroll

The bits everyone knows they should know but usually don't.

• The ROI ceiling nobody knows about
• Sample size intuition — how many tournaments is "enough"?
• Confidence interval width — reading a posterior's honesty

5 · Stable accounting · stable members

Reference documentation for the event-sourced ledger that backs every balance, chop, makeup, and money request in the app. Members-only (you need a stable-members row to read). The last lesson is owners-and-managers only.

• Event log & balance derivation
• Entry types
• Signatures & confirmations
• Reversals & corrections
• Bankroll reconciliation
• Chop lifecycle
• Money requests
• Auto-trust rails
• Expenses & the concierge agreement
• Balance queries
• Audit notes · owners & managers

Read in order, or jump to the tab you're staring at. §1–§4 are Bob & Uncle Tau conversations from the back booth of the taquería. §5 is flat technical reference for the people who run the ledger. The deeper read-your-own-output material — the part that turns these concepts into decisions on your bankroll — is released on subscriber calls.